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Weekly Commentary
The Hidden Truth in Unemployment Stats - Apr 17, 2014
By Peter G. Hall, Vice-President and Chief Economist, Export Development Canada
Have you seen the numbers lately? We should be celebrating in the streets! Recent economic performance has driven unemployment rates down to levels that many believed would not be seen for years to come. So why doesn't it feel that way? Is everyone missing the greatest development in the world economy in years, or is there some good reason for deferring the big party?
Decline in the unemployment rate has been no more dramatic than in the US. From late 2008 to mid-2009, the rate nearly doubled, from 5 per cent to just under 10 per cent, with risk scenarios seeing as much as 10.5 per cent. Since then, the unemployment rate has declined remarkably, currently at 6.7 per cent and on a decided downward trend. The speed of decline should have economy-watchers of all kinds and business planners alarmed about impending labour shortages. But they aren't.
The US isnít alone. Japan's pattern is very similar to America's, ...     More >>

Daily Update (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Bank of Canada holds overnight rate at 1.00%; core inflation to remain contained
Apr 17, 2014
- Canadian consumer prices increased by 0.6% on a not seasonally adjusted basis in March 2014, which was double the pace expected by financial markets.
- The year-over-year rate rebounded to 1.5% from 1.1% in February.
- The Bank of Canadaís core measure rose 0.3% on an unadjusted basis, as was expected.
- The year-over-year core rate crept up to 1.3% from 1.2%.
- Yesterday, the Bank of Canada revised its inflation forecast to incorporate the higher than expected headline rate for the first two months of 2014, the effect of the weaker Canadian dollar, and a higher projected trajectory for natural gas and gasoline prices. This revision was validated with todayís data for March indicating that the headline rate averaged 1.4% and that the core inflation rate was 1.3% in the first quarter of 2014. Our forecast that the economy will grow at a 2.5% pace in 2014 and a stronger 2.7% in ....     More >>

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