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Weekly Commentary
You’ve Lost that Latin Feeling - Oct 16, 2014
By Peter G. Hall, Vice-President and Chief Economist, Export Development Canada
It’s happening to emerging markets everywhere. Slower growth seems to have taken hold of the world’s ascendant economies. The reasons for decline are manifold: sluggish developed-world growth; internal policy woes; structural constraints; geopolitical developments; weak commodity prices; and the list goes on. Heralded not so long ago as economic engines through the crisis years, emerging markets’ neo-slowing has been a big disappointment. Latin America is no exception; a trip there two weeks ago confirmed that sentiment has soured. What’s up?
A region-wide barometer of conditions tells the tale. The Economic Climate Index provided by the Vargas Foundation has sunk to a multi-year low of 85, where 100 is the ‘neutral’ point. Scan broad data, and they generally agree. Year-to-year GDP growth for the seven largest Latin American economies has fallen steadily in the past four quarters from over ...     More >>

Daily Update (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Bank of Canada holds overnight rate at 1.00% and says policy is appropriate
Oct 22, 2014
- Bank of Canada maintained the overnight rate at 1.00%, as was expected.
- Risks to inflation outlook are “roughly balanced.”
The Bank of Canada met expectations today by holding the overnight rate at 1.00% and couched the outlook in terms of the risks to the inflation projection, which were deemed “roughly balanced” and for which a 1.00% policy rate is appropriate. Furthermore, the Bank stated that “underlying inflationary pressures are muted” attributing the run up in the core measure to “unexpected sector-specific factors.” The headline rate is running in line with the Bank’s projections with lower energy prices offsetting the sector-specific price increases. The recent drop in energy prices resulted in the Bank lowering its forecasts for the headline inflation rate while the core rate is ....     More >>

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