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Weekly Commentary
2016: The Top 10 Risks - Sep 29, 2016
By Peter G. Hall, Vice-President and Chief Economist, Export Development Canada
Ever wonder if today's world is riskier than ever before? It certainly feels that way, especially during those periods where we endure an almost daily barrage of negative news. To put this in perspective, EDC Economics periodically assesses the top 10 country risks facing Canada. This commentary is a check-in about what's changed in the world since our last assessment, highlighting a select number of tail risks you should consider.
For starters, the whiff of increased protectionism and regulation across the southern border is undeniable. The upcoming US presidential election with its Fortress America discourse has propelled this issue into our Top 10. Although our teamís latest scenario analysis on the elections indicates a high probability that Congress would constrain either candidate from pursuing the most extreme campaign promises on the economy and trade, the US is ...     More >>

Daily Update (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Canadian July GDP rises 0.5%
Sep 30, 2016
- The July increase builds further onto the 0.6% gain in June thus helping to more than reverse the wildfire-related 0.6% drop in May. Market expectations had been for a more moderate increase of 0.3% July.
The jump in July GDP was once again attributable to a recovery in mining activity which rose 3.9% following the 3.6% increase in June and the 5.7% plummet in May. This largely reflected oil sands production coming back over the last two months following the wildfires-related shutdowns in May. Rising petroleum refinery activity also contributed to manufacturing output rising 0.4% in July. Less anticipated strength occurred in the transportation and warehousing component which jumped ....     More >>

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