Mexico: Steady Through Uncertainty
- Oct 20, 2016
By Peter G. Hall, Vice-President and Chief Economist, Export Development Canada
'Resilient' has been a good word for the Mexican economy in recent years. An on-again, off-again world economy usually has a magnified effect on Mexico. Not this time; through the global bump-and-grind, Mexico has chugged along at a decent pace, plugging away at an aggressive reform agenda and all the while attracting impressive dollops of investment. In a generally reticent world, that is saying something. But is Mexico's smoother ride about to get a lot more bumpy?
The question is a serious one. Fiscal finances are dependent on oil revenues, and world oil prices have been more than cut in half over the past three years. Pemex, the national oil company, is also dependent on these revenues, and is slashing its spending plans. In addition, the peso is getting hit not just by weaker commodity prices, but by the anti-Mexico rhetoric in the US election campaign. The President is sagging in the polls, with his popularity
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