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Weekly Commentary
A Confidence Conundrum - Oct 8, 2015
By Peter G. Hall, Vice-President and Chief Economist, Export Development Canada
Just over a week ago, it was Super Tuesday for consumer confidence. Numbers were released for the UK, France, the EU as a whole, and the US. The data fluctuates with the ups and downs of the news streams, like stock market corrections, the Greek fiasco, geopolitical incidents, and brighter-than-expected economic releases. The big news on both consumer and business confidence is passť. It has long since left the doldrums of the post-crisis period; it recovered long ago. So why didnít the world economy recover along with it?
To put things in context, letís quickly review the recent odyssey of confidence. After riding high, confidence collapsed as the economic and financial crisis hit the world. American consumer sentiment plunged to levels not seen in recent history; they could best be labeled depressionary readings. Recovery ensued, but only to recessionary levels, and they parked there for years. In Europe ...     More >>

Daily Update (Source: RBC Financial Group)
US September FOMC minutes highlight divided Committee but keeps 2015 hike on the table
Oct 8, 2015
The minutes of the September 16 to 17, 2015 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting highlighted some of the Committee's concerns regarding the recent deterioration in the global outlook. While it was noted that these developments have the potential to weigh on US activity and inflation, they did not have a material effect on the Committee's economic outlook. There remains some division in regards to current levels of labour market slack and confidence in inflation returning to the Committee's 2% objective, and thus the appropriate timing for policy firming, but the minutes seem consistent with some Fed speakers' comments that the decision not to hike was a close call.
The discussion on domestic economic activity added little to the post-meeting statement. ....     More >>

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