Why Are Canada’s Exports Tumbling?
- Aug 25, 2016
By Peter G. Hall, Vice-President and Chief Economist, Export Development Canada
Let's call it as it is. Canada is hardly setting records on the international trade track these days. Far from it – we're actually digressing. Growth surged at the beginning of the year in line with expectations, but a swift U-turn dashed those hopes, and the news has been pretty gloomy since. The upbeat outlook at the beginning of the year made sense, and still does. After all, the US economy is still powering ahead, and our dollar remains well below its post-recession average. What went wrong?
The data gyrations are dramatic. A 2-month surge through January lifted exports 5.9 per cent – the sort of payback that was expected, given how the drivers were lining up. Then a 2-month 10.2 per cent crash that made it all look like a fluke. Since then, total exports have meandered, with nothing dramatic really going on. Strip away price movements, though, and the story is more serious. The trend in physical
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