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Weekly Commentary
Swimming without shorts in a world awash in liquidity - Apr 16, 2015
By Peter G. Hall, Vice-President and Chief Economist, Export Development Canada
Six years ago, a world that teetered on the edge of the worst economic plunge since the Depression was arguably rescued by a wave of massive and unprecedentedly coordinated public stimulus measures. Among other things, central bankers of the world opened the floodgates to a surge of liquidity that would help carry a panicking global economy to the shores of relative safety. One unintended side effect of QE saw investment cash flood out of safe assets and into a number of riskier ones.
This never-ending search for yield helped bid up the price of emerging market sovereign and commercial debt. Currency forecasters were forced to abandon their traditional models, or at least substantially up their ‘speculation’ components, in the face of a reinvigorated carry trade. Global equity markets began their ascent to new peaks. And copper’s 123% surge in 2009, viewed against a completely stagnant global economy, prompted calls ...     More >>

Daily Update (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Canadian February retail sales jump higher
Apr 17, 2015
- Nominal retail sales in February 2015 surged by 1.7% in the month following a 1.4% drop in January.
- Nominal sales at gasoline stations contributed to the increase, rising by 2.2% following a 7.5% plummet in January
- Motor vehicle sales also rose in the month by 0.9% after falling by 1.3% in January.
- Excluding the auto and gasoline station components, so called core sales encouragingly surged by 2.0% in February, thus helping to reverse the 1.5% drop in January.
- On a volumes basis, overall retail sales in February rose by 1.3% after falling by a revised 0.6% (previously -1.2%) in January.
- Today’s report provided a break from a number of earlier-released economic indicators for February that had not been very encouraging; however ....     More >>

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