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Weekly Commentary
What's Driving Growth? - Oct 30, 2014
By Peter G. Hall, Vice-President and Chief Economist, Export Development Canada
Recent financial market turbulence has stirred up the fear factor again. European weakness has revived concern about the direction of global growth and the world’s vulnerability to the structural fissures created by the Great Recession. To the bystander, it’s another déjà vu of nascent recovery taking back seat to a best-case scenario of moderate growth. Are the planet’s growth drivers being held back by the gears that are stubbornly slow and even stuck, or will they prevail, powering the world economy into its next exciting growth phase?
Naysayers have lots of fodder. Italy is back in recession, and German growth has faltered. France has ‘stabilized’ at zero growth, and is struggling with political impasse. The setback is serious, but the cause remains a bit of a mystery. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a plausible cause, although it hasn’t moved business and consumer confidence far off the recent high perch. Pre-existing fiscal ...     More >>

Daily Update (Source: RBC Financial Group)
US GDP grew by a stronger than expected 3.5% in the third quarter
Oct 30, 2014
- The advance estimate of third-quarter 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 3.5% (at an annualized rate), which was above market expectations for a 3.0% increase. Although a solid pace of growth, the third-quarter gain was smaller than an outsized 4.6% jump in the second quarter when activity rebounded from a 2.1% weather-related drop in the first quarter.
- Much of the upward surprise on overall third-quarter 2014 GDP growth reflected a larger than expected 4.6% jump in government spending. Growth in consumer spending slowed to 1.8% from 2.5% in the second quarter, as expected, while residential and business investment each increased less than expected.
- GDP growth remained solid in the third quarter ....     More >>

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