The following content is excerpted from the Management's Discussion & Analysis of Uranium Participation Corp. dated January 10, 2019 filed on SEDAR.
Uranium Industry Overview (September - November 2018)
During the three months ended November 30, 2018, the uranium price continued to appreciate. During the quarter, the spot price for uranium rose steadily from an opening price of US$26.20 per pound U3O8, breaking through the US$29.00 threshold at the beginning of November 2018. Since that time the spot price has remained stable, ending the quarter at US$29.10 per pound U3O8, with general market sentiment remaining positive.
The upward pressure on the uranium spot price has been driven by a record volume of uranium transactions in calendar 2018, with more than 85 million pounds U3O8 transacted as of the end of November 2018 (47 million pounds U3O8 during the same period in 2017). The year-to-date transaction volumes include significant spot market purchases by Cameco Corp. ('Cameco'), which are in line with its publicly announced plans following the decision to indefinitely shut down their McArthur River Mine. Heading into 2019, the spot market will continue to look to Cameco as an important source of demand, with the company recently raising its expected range of purchase volumes for 2019 from 9-11 million to 10-12 million pounds U3O8.
Also on the demand side, some clarity has now been provided to the long anticipated French energy plan, which was released recently. Since President Macron took office, there has been some uncertainty around plans proposed, by previous French President Hollande, to reduce the country's reliance on nuclear energy. Under the new plan, the goal to reduce the country's reliance on nuclear energy from 75% to 50% has been deferred by a decade, from 2025 to 2035.
On the supply side, Rio Tinto PLC has agreed to sell its 68.62% share in Rossing Uranium Ltd ("Rossing"), the owner and operator of the Rossing uranium mine in Namibia, to China National Uranium Corporation ("CNUC"), a subsidiary of China National Nuclear Corporation ("CNNC") - resulting in a major shift in the primary production landscape. The sale price includes $100 million in consideration contingent on uranium prices and Rossing's earnings over the next 7 years. Production at the site has decreased in recent years, with 4.7 million pounds U3O8 produced in 2017. With this purchase, Chinese companies have officially become the preeminent uranium producers in Namibia, with CNNC's main competitor in China, China General Nuclear Power Group ('CGN'), operating the Husab mine next door to the Rossing mine.
In other industry news, the highly anticipated initial public offering ("IPO") of the world's largest uranium producer, Kazakhstan's National Atomic Company Kazatomprom ('Kazatomprom'), went ahead successfully in November 2018. Only 15% of the company was offered for sale through the IPO, and the transition to a publicly traded company has already resulted in added transparency into the company's operations, which is generally seen as positive for the market.