Economic Indicators (Source: Scotiabank)
Why the Bank of Canada May Revise Up Inflation Forecasts Post-GDP and Turn More Hawkish
Nov 28, 2025
Could there be a messier set of GDP numbers? Not really. They made for fun trying to do instant coverage on the fly in chat rooms. I’m not sure that markets really understood what went on beneath the hood but they serendipitously wound up at the right conclusion regardless. CAD appreciated and Canadian bond yields moved higher across the board. The broad set of numbers needs further work but the conclusion is that they’ll keep the BoC sidelined.
The key lies in the revisions that I’ll turn to first. Second is why you should look right past the massive headline beat for Canadian GDP. Third is why you should also look past some of the weakness in October GDP.
REVISIONS POINT TO LESS SLACK
Statcan applied large upward revisions to GDP over 2022, 2023 and 2024. Statcan did not mention GDP revisions in their website line-up of daily releases, nor in the prior write-ups for monthly and Q2 GDP reports where they usually flag coming revisions. Where did they put it? Buried in a provincial GDP write-up where few macro watchers would bother to look ....     More >>

Featured Insights (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Stagnating income threaten wealth gains for young Canadians
Nov 26, 2025
Young Canadian households have built wealth faster than any other age group since 2020, but their income gains shows a different picture.
Households under age 35 nearly doubled their net wealth over the last four years, yet they’ve simultaneously experienced the slowest income growth of any age group.
Wealth gains largely came from an increase in financial assets, including cash deposits, and sizable growth in the value of their properties.
Pandemic-era government support (like CERB) provided significant cash flows to young households, allowing them to build financial reserves. Stock market appreciation and generational wealth transfers also likely contributed to these gains. The sustainability of those gains, however, is threatened by stagnating income growth for young households.
Lower liabilities boost net wealth for young households
Asset growth, however, hasn’t been the only source of wealth for under 35 households. Young households have also seen liabilities shrink—primarily reflecting lower average mortgage debt. ....     More >>

TD - The Weekly Bottom Line - Nov 28, 2025
Canadian Highlights
- GDP growth rebounded sharply in Q3, but the composition points to soft domestic demand. Revisions back to 2022 indicate that the economy was stronger than previously thought.
- Industry GDP posted a modest gain in September, but points to a contraction in October. Export-reliant sectors continue to lag.
- Tangible benefits from the two new government announcements will take some time to materialize. For now, the economy is tracking in line with the BoC’s estimates, suggesting the policy rate will remain on hold.
U.S. Highlights
- Market expectations for a Fed rate cut on December 10th are now north of 80%, as key Fed officials voice support for a further reduction.
- Retail sales for September were a bit weaker than expected, suggesting less momentum heading into the fourth quarter.
- The Beige Book provided further anecdotal evidence that growth in the U.S. economy remains sluggish.