Economic Indicators (Source: Scotiabank)
US Core CPI Reinforces FOMC On Hold
Jan 13, 2026
Questionable US inflation data came in very slightly beneath consensus at 0.24% m/m SA, or 2.9% m/m at a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (chart 1 with cautions about absent prior data). The year-over-year rates were reasonably stable (chart 2).
That six-one-hundredths of a percentage point undershoot relative to consensus expectations for core inflation prompted a knee-jerk initial rally in US 2s that then faded toward only a minor move lower once details were digested.
Core goods inflation collapsed to 0% m/m SAAR (chart 3). Categories like used vehicles (-1.1% m/m SA, or -12.6% m/m SAAR) contributed to this (new vehicle prices were flat at 0.2% m/m SAAR). So did multiple other goods categories that were soft, but with important offsets like apparel (+7.3% m/m SAAR).
Core services inflation remained robust. Services CPI ex-housing services and ex-energy services was up by 0.29% m/m SA, or 3.5% m/m SAAR (chart 4).
Within services, hot areas were OER and primary rent, both up 0.3% m/m SA, or 3.8% m/m SAAR for OER and 3.2% m/m SAAR for primary rent. Fed Governor Miran’s housing disinflation narrative ....     More >>

Featured Insights (Source: RBC Financial Group)
RBC Consumer Spending Tracker
Jan 14, 2026
Holiday season promotions buoy RBC Canadian cardholder spending
December spending snapshot: Canadian cardholder spending remained resilient with RBC’s core retail sales rising 0.7% on a three-month average—down slightly from November—but still marking the 13th consecutive period of growth.
Spending over this critical holiday shopping period for retailers was driven by purchases of discretionary goods, while discretionary services and household essentials were little changed over the last three months.
Holiday season triggers temporary shifts in spending
Discretionary goods spending accelerated 1.7% on a three-month average in December, marginally slower than the 2% gain recorded in November.
Spending gains were concentrated in clothing and apparel as households continued to prioritize tangible gift purchases through year-end.
Boxing day sales outpaced levels a year earlier, potentially benefitting from the weekday timing—it was on a Friday in 2025 compared to a Thursday in 2024.
Other categories, however, revealed where ....     More >>

TD - The Weekly Bottom Line - Jan 9, 2026
Canadian Highlights
- Canada’s unemployment rate jumped higher to 6.8% in December as rapid labour force growth outweighed tepid employment gains.
- Canada’s goods trade balance is back in deficit territory. But trade in gold continues to whipsaw both import and export readings, making discerning trends more challenging.
- Prime Minister Carney will visit China next week to discuss investment and trade; a timely meeting on the heels of the U.S./Venezuela situation.
U.S. Highlights
- The payrolls report for December came in weaker than expected, capping off the “low hire, low fire” 2025 jobs market.
- Global oil markets adjusted to the possible return of Venezuelan crude to global markets following U.S. actions in the country.
- Investors will have to stay tuned for the Supreme Court’s ruling on the IEEPA tariffs.