Economic Indicators (Source: Scotiabank)
Canada is Slowly Emerging from Core Inflation Softness
May 19, 2026
Canadian inflation came in under everyone’s expectations and particularly mine in the spirt of accountability. That’s good news for the inflation watch so far but only at a highly nascent stage for evaluating inflation risk stemming from pass through of pre-war producer prices and pass through from the surge in commodities due to the war.
One category looked fishy to me and played a significant role and I’ll explain why.
Nevertheless, Canada is emerging from a prior soft patch on high frequency core inflation measures, but hardly at a screaming pace thus far. A lot of data still lies ahead and nothing is settled by one report.
Charts 1, 2 and 3 show the m/m seasonally adjusted at annualized rate readings for core measures of inflation. Trimmed mean landed at 1.7% m/m SAAR with weighted median at 2.2% m/m SAAR with no revisions and have both exited the softest readings over prior months. Traditional core CPI (ex-food and energy) was 0% m/m SAAR and was revised down from 0% m/m SAAR in March to –0.75%.
Core goods inflation (ex-food and energy) sharply accelerated last month (chart 4) to post the hottest reading since May 2022 ....     More >>

Featured Insights (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Canada’s looming labour squeeze: The impact of retirements and immigration policy
May 26, 2026
Canada’s labour force is going through a period of unprecedented structural change for more than one reason.
It’s been well telegraphed that caps on temporary and permanent resident arrivals from abroad mean the population is on track to shrink for the first year on record in 2026. And with a rising share of the population hitting retirement age, the size of the available workforce will decline more than the population, and for the first time on record outside of the pandemic.
The unemployment rate remains high following the Bank of Canada’s 2023-24 tightening cycle and disruptions from U.S. tariffs, giving policymakers room to maintain restrictive caps on immigration for now. But under the surface, longer-run structural headwinds against labour supply are building.
We have noted this trend creates an unusual combination: Less job growth (even potentially small declines) would still be sufficient for per-worker labour market conditions to improve with the unemployment rate drifting lower—i.e. Canada’s “breakeven” employment rate has declined sharply. ....     More >>

TD - The Weekly Bottom Line - May 29, 2026
Canadian Highlights
- Markets swung on hopes of a Middle East truce, but the outlook remains fragile.
- Canada’s economy has stalled out over the past two quarters, with weak domestic demand and patchy investment pointing to subdued momentum.
- The upcoming CUSMA review is now central, as Canada looks to pair greater trade clarity with an energy led investment strategy.
U.S. Highlights
- Renewed hopes of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension pushed WTI prices 9% lower this week to $88 per barrel.
- Consumer spending remained resilient in April, amid rising inflationary pressures and dwindling household savings.
- More Fed officials are joining the chorus of sounding increasingly hawkish, with Fed futures 60% priced for a rate hike by year-end.