Economic Indicators (Source: Scotiabank)
The BoC’s October Decision Might Still Be ‘Live’ Despite A Quirky Jobs Report
Oct 10, 2025
There are few—but meaningful—holes to poke in a very strong Canadian employment report that adds to evidence in favour of a hold by the Bank of Canada on October 29th.
That’s more probable now, but not assured. We still need to see CPI on October 21st and the BoC’s quarterly surveys the day before, but at this point the odds of skipping the meeting have gone up. The economy is still weak and building spare capacity which could motivate the BoC to opt in favour of additional insurance. The BoC looks at job market trends that are still weak with employment down 46k in Q3 and there is a strong reason to be careful interpreting this round of jobs numbers.
DETAILS
Chart 1 provides some summary metrics. Total employment was up by +60.4k. Almost all of that was in payrolls (+53k) with public sector payrolls up by 31k and private sector payrolls up by 22k but self-employed was also a little higher at +8k.
Chart 2 shows the breakdown of job growth by sector. Somehow manufacturers added 28k jobs. The rest was mostly in health care and social assistance plus 'other' services ex-public admin. There was decent ....     More >>

Featured Insights (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Expanding U.S. Section 232 tariffs squeezes Canadian manufacturers
Oct 14, 2025
The U.S. administration has been relying more on Section 232 tariffs recently to target imports.
The other set of country-specific IEEPA tariffs imposed on Canada since March are currently under review at the U.S. Supreme Court. These tariffs critically exempt products that complied with CUSMA trade, which accounted for 94% of Canadian exports to the U.S. in 2024.
That exemption, however, does not apply to Section 232 tariffs with the sole exception of auto parts where CUSMA exemptions temporarily apply until administrative challenges are resolved. To-date, these Section 232 tariffs have accounted for the bulk of U.S. duties charged on Canadian exports.
For details on the implications of the announced and looming U.S. Section 232 tariffs:
Softwood lumber
- Softwood lumber products targeted with new 10% tariffs accounted for 1.3% of Canadian exports to the U.S. in 2024.
- The latest tariffs apply globally, but disproportionately ....     More >>

TD - The Weekly Bottom Line - Oct 10, 2025
Canadian Highlights
- Canadian and U.S. policymakers have yet to hammer out a trade deal, but negotiations are still ongoing.
- Trade-related headwinds dampened Canadian trade in August, with tariff-exposed sectors continuing to feel the pinch.
- Canada’s labour market recovered some of the jobs lost in the previous two months, while ongoing labour force growth kept the unemployment rate steady.
U.S. Highlights
- The government shutdown continues through its second week, with no clear end in sight, while trade tensions between the U.S. and China have suddenly heated up.
- Absent official data, the market is turning to imperfect private-sector alternatives, which suggest the labor market continued to cool in September.
- We don’t see any developments this week that are likely to cause a big shift in the perception of the economy or the outlook, and so we are still penciling in two more quarter-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by year-end.