Industry Overview - Uranium Market (Mar-May 2019)


The following content is excerpted from the Management's Discussion & Analysis of Uranium Participation Corp. dated June 26, 2019 filed on SEDAR.

Uranium Industry Overview (Mar-May 2019)
During the three-months ending May 31, 2019, the spot price declined from US$28.00 per pound U3O8 to US$24.10 per pound U3O8, as a result of very limited demand in the market during the period. Industry consensus is that most utilities, particularly those in the United States ('US'), remain reluctant to make significant purchase decisions prior to learning the outcome of the ongoing Section 232 trade petition in that country.

The process associated with the Section 232 trade petition advanced during the quarter, with the US Department of Commerce ('DOC') submitting the results of its investigation to the White House on April 11, 2019. From the date of the receipt of the report from the DOC, the US President has 90 days to evaluate the findings and make a decision on whether uranium imports are detrimental to US national security and if a trade related remedy should be implemented. In mid-May 2019, however, additional uncertainty regarding the timing of a decision was introduced when it was announced that President Trump would delay a decision regarding tariffs on auto imports - another case that is being reviewed under Section 232 - by 180 days. The decision on uranium could similarly be delayed, which could extend the state of uncertainty that has dominated the uranium market in recent months.

On the uranium demand front, a number of positive indicators continue to emerge. At a recent nuclear conference, the Chairman of India's Atomic Energy Commission and Secretary of the Department of Atomic Energy ('DAE') reinforced that country's aggressive pursuit of new nuclear power plants in order to improve the reliability of the country's power supply for both industrial and residential users.

In Taiwan, sentiment toward the nuclear power industry has also taken a positive turn. In May 2019, the country passed an amendment to eliminate the 'Nuclear Free Homeland 2025' mandate that was imposed by the anti-nuclear Democratic Progressive Party in early 2017. This amendment has opened the door for positive future decisions to be made regarding extending the lives of existing nuclear power plants in the country, as well as the possible completion of the Lungmen nuclear power plant, where construction was halted in 2014.

Also in the quarter, South Korea's Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power ('KHNP') announced the successful start-up of its Shin Kori 4 nuclear power plant. Initial criticality was reached on April 11, 2019, and the unit was connected to the grid on April 22, 2019. The Shin Kori 4 unit is a 1,400 MWe APR-1400, which is the same design as those currently under construction in the UAE at the Barakah nuclear power plant. It will begin supplying electricity in January 2020.

Another source of positive news came from Xcel Energy Inc. ('Xcel'), a nuclear utility in the US. In May 2019, Xcel announced it would retire its last two coal plants in the US Upper Midwest a decade earlier than scheduled, and at the same time extend the life of its Monticello nuclear plant by another decade to 2040.

In Germany, the government has received escalating calls from several of the country's most prominent business leaders to delay the country's plans to implement a full-scale nuclear phase-out by the end of 2022. Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess was among those who have emphasized the importance of nuclear power, highlighting that Germany needs to run its nuclear power plants longer if climate protection really matters to the country.

Not all the nuclear utility news during the quarter was positive. Exelon Generation, a US reactor operator and subsidiary of Exelon Corp., announced in May 2019 that Unit 1 at its Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania will definitely shut down by September 30, 2019. The company had disclosed previously that it would shut down the reactor prematurely as it was unable to compete with the low price of natural gas and subsidized renewable energy. Exelon Generation had petitioned, unsuccessfully, to receive state subsidies to recognize the environmental benefits of nuclear energy.

Additionally, news emerged from Japan that could lead to the temporary closure of some or all of the nine nuclear reactors that have been restarted to date. The country's Nuclear Regulation Authority ('NRA') previously set out rules whereby nuclear reactor operators were given five years from the date of the approval of the initial reactor restart plan to complete anti-terrorism protection work on each reactor's emergency facilities. Each of the three utilities currently operating units in Japan - Kansai, Kyushu and Shikoku - have said they require between one to two and a half additional years to complete the work; however, the NRA has indicated that it will not extend the deadline. Accordingly, if these utilities are unable to shorten their timelines, and the NRA is unwilling to reconsider its position, temporary closures could follow.

On the uranium supply front, news of further production shutdowns has surfaced again. Niger's Ministry of Mines has confirmed operations at the Cominak mine could close soon as a result of the current low uranium price environment. Cominak produced 2.9 million lbs of U3O8 in 2018, down from 3.5 million lbs U3O8 in 2017. Further, in Namibia, Rio Tinto PLC has indicated that its Rössing Uranium Mine could close by June 2020 if the operation's sale to China National Uranium Corp. is not completed.

In an interesting market development, a new financial interest in the nuclear industry emerged during the period, when the Horizons Global Uranium Index ETF was launched in May 2019 by Horizons ETF Management (Canada). The new uranium ETF trades on the TSX (HURA) and includes a basket of global uranium industry issuers, including Uranium Participation Corp..

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